GDP growth at 4-year low: key takeaways

India's economy grew at 4.4 per cent in the April-June quarter, the slowest quarterly rate since the global financial crisis. This was also the third consecutive quarter of below 5 per cent growth, building more pressure on the government to take immediate action to resuscitate it. The Indian economy grew at 5.4 per cent in the same quarter last year.

  1. GDP or gross domestic product for the first quarter came in below estimates of 4.6 per cent. During the previous quarter, the country's economy grew at 4.8 per cent.
  2. Agricultural sector output was however better that estimates at 2.7 per cent against 1.4 per cent during the January-March quarter
  3. Industry output during the April-June quarter was worse than estimates, up 0.2 per cent. Industry output in the previous quarter grew 2.7 per cent
  4. Manufacturing sector showed a de-growth of -1.2 per cent, showing a sharp drop in manufacturing activity
  5. Trade, hotels, transport segment, a key indicator of services sector, posted the biggest drop in growth to 3.9 per cent from 6.2 per cent
  6. Private final consumption expenditure growth which reflects consumer demand slowed down to 1.6 per cent during the first quarter
  7. Gross fixed capital formation dropped 1.2 per cent in the first quarter, a reflection of investment activity slowing down
  8. There was no pick up in exports during the quarter, data showed a de-growth of -1.2 per cent
  9. Government spending on community, social & personal services went up sharply during the quarter to 9.4 per cent from 4 per cent a quarter ago

    Going forward government finances are likely to get stretched
    Source: NDTV Profit

Rupee crisis: Top 10 steps taken to support the currency

As the rupee edged closer to the 69 mark against dollar yesterday, the RBI announced fresh measures to shore up the currency

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will provide dollars directly to state oil companies in attempt to support the rupee that has slumped over 20 percent this year. State-run companies are the biggest source of dollar demand in markets - worth $400 million to $500 million daily - and directing them to a special window is meant to reduce pressure on the rupee.

The government will soon issue quasi-sovereign bonds to help bring more dollar inflows into the country. Under the scheme, state finance companies will sell these bonds to fund infrastructure development.

The RBI will sell Rs 22,000 crore bonds every week to check the volatility in forex market.

  1. s.
  2.  22,000 crore bonds every week to check the volatility in forex market.
The government has hiked the import duty on gold and silver to 10 percent to rein in the imports.
The RBI has tightened the norms for gold imports by linking them to exports. Also, credit availability for gold imports has also been tightened.

PSU oil companies would be allowed to raise additional funds - $4 billion - through external commercial borrowings (ECBs).

In a bid to attract NRI deposits, the RBI liberalised bank deposit schemes and some banks raised rates for overseas Indians this month.

To spur banks to attract more dollar deposits from NRIs, the RBI has exempted these deposits from cash reserve ratio and statutory liquidity ratio requirements.

The RBI has tightened liquidity to reduce the availability of rupee in the banking system to reduce rupee volatility. However, these measures have led to an increase in the short-term interest rates.

The government has banned the duty-free import of flat-screen televisions to stem the flow of foreign currency out of the country. It is estimated that more than 1 million television sets were brought into the country last year. Under the new rules, airline passengers will have to pay a 35 percent duty and other charges.

Source: NDTV Profit

Rupee recovers to 66.85 as RBI moves on oil imports

The rupee rebounded on Thursday from a record low after the Reserve Bank of India's move to provide dollars directly to oil companies provided relief to the currency, while a recovery in emerging market currencies also helped offer support.

The RBI decision is aimed at removing a major source of dollar demand from the spot market - worth $400 million to $500 million daily - and so reduce downward pressure on the Indian currency.

The rupee rose as high as 66.85 per dollar shortly after the open, up sharply from a record low of 68.85 per dollar on Wednesday when the currency posted its biggest single-day percentage fall since October 1995.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it was providing a special window with immediate effect to sell dollars to Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd. Oil represents India's biggest import item.

However, analysts said the RBI measures alone would not lead to a sustained rupee recovery unless the government can pass measures that can convince markets of its willingness to tackle India's fiscal and current account deficits and slowing growth.

"The measure is unlikely to arrest the decline in the INR with the authorities increasingly trying to find new means to stem the rout in the currency," Mitul Kotecha, head of global markets research for Asia at Credit Agricole in Hong Kong, said in an email to clients.

Thursday's rupee bounce also boosted shares and bonds, underscoring how movements in domestic markets are increasingly being driven by the beleaguered currency.

The Nifty rose 0.6 per cent while benchmark 10-year bond yields fell 15 basis points to 8.81 per cent.

The improved sentiment was also helped as Asian shares recovered while emerging market currencies stabilised as fears abated that U.S.-led forces would soon launch a military strike against Syria.

The defence of the rupee has largely rested so far on the RBI's shoulders. Yet its plan to drain cash from markets and curb speculative trading is becoming increasingly controversial as bond yields have surged, raising borrowing costs in an economy already growing at its slowest pace in a decade.

At the same time, the government has struggled to inspire confidence despite a slew of measures to raise dollars from abroad and curb imports of gold and oil that have most contributed to a record current account deficit.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's ruling coalition, which faces elections by May next year, is banking on passing land acquisition rules that would replace laws dating back to the 19th century.

The Lok Sabha is set to discuss on Thursday the controversial bill on how to compensate farmers for land acquired for infrastructure and industrial projects, an action that aims to speed up major projects, but which critics say could raise costs and actually slow down the acquisition process.

Copyright Thomson Reuters 2013

Oil Import Cost Hits Record 7,000/bbl Falling rupee, rising crude set to escalate PSU oilcos’ losses as well as the budget deficit


In a double whammy, a depreciating rupee and rising international crude oil prices have taken India’s cost of importing oil beyond a historic high of . 7,000 per barrel. This is bound to increase losses at public sector oil companies as well as further bloat the government’s budget deficit, which is already at unsustainable levels, unless diesel prices are revised upwards. 
A barrel of crude oil, which India imported for . 5,500 per barrel in April 2013, now costs 27% more to over . 7,000/barrel, in August. The increase is due to a combination of factors — a 7% rise in international crude oil prices and a 19% decline of the rupee against the US dollar. Needless to mention, this has put enormous pressure on India’s current account deficit — nearly 80% of India’s oil is imported — as also fiscal deficit — since the government pays for keeping domestic retail prices artificially low. The situation is bad for the public sector oil companies. The three oil marketing companies — Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL — would have incurred a combined loss of . 3.38 lakh crore in the past three fiscals, had they not been compensated by the government and upstream companies, informed P Lakshmi, minister of state for petroleum in Rajya Sabha on August 27. The government paid two-thirds of this or nearly . 2.25 lakh crore. 
In the April- June 2013 quarter, the three OMCs have lost . 27,638 crore, when the average crude oil import price was . 5,665 per barrel. If the 
In the April- June 2013 quarter, the three OMCs have lost . 27,638 crore, when the average crude oil import price was . 5,665 per barrel. If the In the April- June 2013 quarter, the three OMCs have lost . 27,638 crore, when the average crude oil import price was . 5,665 per barrel. If the crude oil prices were to stay above . 7,000 per barrel for the rest of the fiscal, other things being equal, the under-recovery bill could rise to . 1,30,000 crore for FY14. 
The Union Budget for 2013-14 provides . 65,000 crore as under-recovery compensation to the oil PSUs. Out of this, . 18,000 crore are expected to go towards short provisioning of previous year. As a result, the rising oil prices could raise budget provisions by . 31,000 crore assuming the government will fund 60% of the total under-recoveries. 
Media reports suggest the government is mulling an over a . 5-a litre increase in diesel prices. However unpalatable it may be politically, this could prove a welcome move for the industry as well as the economy, since at 45% of total petroleum consumption, diesel is the largest consumed product in the country. 
The Union Budget for 2013-14 provides . 65,000 crore as under-recovery compensation to the oil PSUs. Out of this, . 18,000 crore are expected to go towards short provisioning of previous year. As a result, the rising oil prices could raise budget provisions by . 31,000 crore assuming the government will fund 60% of the total under-recoveries. Media reports suggest the government is mulling an over a . 5-a litre increase in diesel prices. However unpalatable it may be politically, this could prove a welcome move for the industry as well as the economy, since at 45% of total petroleum consumption, diesel is the largest consumed product in the country. The Union Budget for 2013-14 provides . 65,000 crore as under-recovery compensation to the oil PSUs. Out of this, . 18,000 crore are expected to go towards short provisioning of previous year. As a result, the rising oil prices could raise budget provisions by . 31,000 crore assuming the government will fund 60% of the total under-recoveries. Media reports suggest the government is mulling an over a . 5-a litre increase in diesel prices. However unpalatable it may be politically, this could prove a welcome move for the industry as well as the economy, since at 45% of total petroleum consumption, diesel is the largest consumed product in the country. 


Source: The Economic Times

By: RAMKRISHNA KASHELKAR

IndiGo World’s 10th Biggest Low-cost Carrier


IndiGo, India’s biggest carrier by passenger market-share, is also the world’s tenth biggest low-cost carrier (LCC) by seats offered, according to a recent report by CAPA-Centre for Aviation. The Gurgaon-based airline follows Malaysian carrier and soon-to-be local rival AirAsia, which is on the 9th spot in a list led by Southwest Airlines, Ryanair and Easyjet, according to date compiled by the Sydney-based consultant. The airline currently has a fleet of 69 planes and offers 533,700 seats. AirAsia has a smaller fleet of 67 planes, but has 537,840 seats on offer, the report said. Southwest Airlines has a total fleet of 584 planes and 3.3 million seats to sell. IndiGo’s Indian rivals SpiceJet and Go Air are in spots 16 and 36 respectively in a list of 50 budget carriers. The inclusion of India’s budget carriers in the list shows their growing prominence in the global aviation industry. 
    The LCC segment exploded in 
India in 2003 with the advent of GR Gopinath’s Air Deccan that introduced unprecedented fares of 1 and 99, and led to an aviation boom, with passenger numbers shooting upwards of 30%. 
While Air Deccan couldn’t sustain its balance sheet and sold stake to Vijay Mallya-owned Kingfisher Airlines, other LCCs came in and rapidly grew in the Indian market nibbling away share from their full service rivals. India’s three LCCs together currently control close to 59% of the passenger market although about 40% of India’s total scheduled passenger 
fleet, according to May data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation. 
The LCC space in India is now set to grow even further with AirAsia planning to set up a local carrier in India in a tie-up with the Tata Group and Arun Bhatia of Telestra Tradeplace. The airline plans to start operations by end of this year or early next year. Jet, India’s second-biggest carrier, also runs low fare flights under a brand called Jet Konnect, while Air India is planning to operate all economy flights on some routes. 
IndiGo, owned partly by InterGlobe Enterprises and US-based Caelum Investments, started operations in August 2006, after placing a mammoth order of 100 Airbus A320 planes. 
The carrier followed it with an order of 180 planes in 2011, then the biggest passenger aircraft deal by volume in aviation history. It currently has an order of 158 planes. Over the years, the airline has, with its lean business model and operational efficiency, been estimated to be the only profit-making carrier in recent times.

Source: The Economic Times


Short Takes from the World of Brands

Kellogg Sees Market Magic in . 10- Price Point KOLKATA The world’s leading cereal food maker Kellogg said Indian consumers are showing a tendency for lapping up ‘affordable nutrition’ for breakfast with its smaller and entry-level packs driving sales. Kellogg India director marketing Harpreet Tibb said the . 10-price point has become a big segment for the company which has prompted it to launch multiple products at this price point, including corn flakes and oats. “The smaller packs are growing at double-digit pace and we might further expand the offering based on consumer feedback,” he said. Tibb said Kellogg controls almost 60% of the . 700-crore breakfast cereal market in India, which is growing at a double-digit pace. He, however, declined to share financial details of Kellogg India. Is Coca-Cola Still Following its 127-yr-old ‘Secret Fizzy Formula’? 
MELBOURNE Coca-Cola, which is known for touting the roots of its recipes, claims that their formulae are sacred. In the 1994 book Secret Formula,reporter Frederick Allen noted that multiple changes were made to the formula over the years. For example, Allen noted that the soft drink once contained trace amounts of cocaine as a result of the coca leaves in the ingredients as well as four times the amount of caffeine. However, in an emailed statement, Coca-Cola said its secret formula has remained the same since it was invented in 1886 and that cocaine has “never been an added ingredient” in its soft drink. In the 1980s, Coca-Cola along with PepsiCo switched from sugar to high-fructose corn syrup, a cheaper sweetener. The companies last year also said they'd change the way they make the caramel colouring used 
in their soft drinks, while claiming that doing so does not alter the basic formulas or taste for their soft drinks. The sweeter formula was marketed as an improved replacement for the flagship soda, and the company points to the outrage that ensued as proof of how much people love the original. According to Coca-Cola, that’s the only time the company ever tried changing its formula.

Source: The Economics Times

As Auto Sales Take to Wheelchair, Staff Wheeled into Motivational Chamber

In the first week of August, about 3,000 workers from the Nashik and Chakan plants of Mahindra & Mahindra had an unusual visitor: Sindhutai Sapkal. The 64-year-old social worker and activist, who has devoted her life to adopting and taking care of orphans, addressed workers at the plants on handling ups and downs in life. 
In the cyclical template, this is a down period for the workers, and Mahindra 
wants to help them keep a sense of equilibrium. A month ago, they saw 1,000 contract workers who shared the shop floor with them lose their jobs. It’s the same story elsewhere in the sector, where car sales have fallen for eight straight months and heavy truck sales for 17 months, and about 2,500-3,000 contract jobs lost in the last quarter alone, including at Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors. 
In this sector with a history of labour unrest and fault lines, auto companies are trying a host of things to keep employee morale up in these trying times. 
Cos Try to Talk Up Employees’ Morale 
Initiatives range from communicating the state of business to talks by motivational speakers, from skilling programmes to community service initiatives, from reassigning new projects to rewards. According to PN Shah, chief executive-automotive division, M&M, such initiatives help both employees and the management. “With the Chakan unit having a lot of young workforce, it was essential to have such inspirational speakers to address hardships and ways to face such situations, and not get mentally disturbed,” he says. “Most workers are aware of the current situation and the external environment, and so it was much easier for them to understand any kind of management decisions.” 
Acknowledging the diverse efforts by companies, DL Sachdev, national secretary of trade union AITUC, says only a return to normal production levels will put workers at ease. “Although companies are re-skilling workers or giving them multiple responsibilities, if the overall situation does not improve in the next two to three months, workers will start feeling the insecurity,” he says. The auto 
industry employs about 200,000 workers in manufacturing and auto components another 500,000. A senior executive of a leading automotive company, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, feels the challenge for companies is greater in managing their blue-collar workforce. “Employees at the lower level do not have the same kind of maturity,” he says. “Disgruntlement at the lower level may be more due to the sensitivity of a pay cut affecting their daily bread. Resentment or dissatisfaction at the lower levels could be higher.” 
The way to deal with it, says Ashok Leyland Managing Director Vinod Dasari, is to be honest. “In tough times, one should be communicating with workers more,” he told ET. SY Siddiqui, CEO (administration), Maruti Suzuki, agrees. 
Recently, in a first for Ashok Leyland, Dasari did a live webcast with all its 12,000 employees across 120 locations. He made a presentation originally shared with the company’s board of directors. It briefed workers on the macroeconomic environment, the company’s slowdown strategy and priorities, and its expectations from the employees. After the presentation, Dasari 
also fielded questions on job and salary cuts, and future plans. 
He said the company may cut more jobs, with merit being the criteria, and that promotions and increments would be delayed by three months. Ashok Leyland has cut salaries by 5% since July and negotiated a productivity 
improvement of 15%. The company also recently launched its maiden employee awards, named after its chairman. “We did it for the first time,” says Dasari. “Many told us not to do it in the downturn.” He adds that the company is considering helping laid-off workers set up their own workshops, join company dealerships or become parts retailers for Ashok Leyland. 
Elsewhere, according to Shah, M&M has been using the downtime to re-skill workers to handle different assembly operations or machines, and take up more responsib
ilities. Such sessions, which were earlier held quarterly, are now being held monthly. M&M has also increased employee training in quality control and material management. It is also engaging inspirational speakers. Besides Sindhutai, M&M invited external trainer Ramesh Deshpande to speak to workers on ways to conserve costs and be positive in life. According to Vilas Patankar, who works in the quality department at M&M’s Nashik plant, the 3,000 workers who attended Sindhutai’s session benefitted from it, and even donated Rs 3 lakh to her orphanages and trusts. “We were told to treat the company like a mother, and not desert her,” says Patankar. 
According to Kuldeep Jangu, general secretary, Maruti Udyog Kamgar Union, there is a sense of insecurity, but the hope is that it will tide over quickly. “Training programmes and re-skilling are being regularly done (by Maruti),” he says. Adds Vishnu Newale, president of Tata Motors Union, “It’s always better to have a job than not have one. With competition peaking in the car market, it’s only prudent to re-skill and improve quality.”

Source: The Economics Times, By: LIJEE PHILIP & KETAN THAKKAR

Saudi Aramco Eyes 30% in OPaL Project Plans to enter Indian oil sector by picking up stake in Gujarat petrochem project

The world’s biggest oil producer, Saudi Aramco, plans to acquire up to 30% stake with a key management role in a giant petrochemicals project in Gujarat, and is negotiating with ONGC Petro additions Ltd (OPaL) for the stake that can pave the way for the behemoth’s entry into the Indian oil and gas sector. 
The proposed deal, currently at an advanced stage, will be mutually fruitful as Middle-East oil suppliers are looking for closer links in large Asian markets, with the American continents likely to depend less on crude oil imports as domestic shale production and deepsea oil and gas output pick up. Aramco also aspires to be a world leader in chemicals and is partnering Dow Chemicals in a $20-billion venture to build the world’s biggest petrochemicals complex in the east of the kingdom. It partners Exxon, Total and other firms in refining and chemicals ventures too. For India, investment in the . 19,500-crore project by the Saudi behemoth will come as a shot in the arm for the business climate, which has suffered as the rupee has tumbled, markets have crashed and foreign investors are jittery. Saudi Aramco, which has 54,000 employees across 77 countries, is held in awe by the global oil industry as it pumps a staggering 9.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or eight times the capacity of Reliance’s Jamnagar complex that processes 1.2 million bpd. 
“Saudi Aramco is likely to pick up a significant minority 
stake between 20% and 30 % in OPaL and will become a strategic investor in the company,” a person close to the deal told ET. This would be the first equity investment by the Saudi major, which virtually dominates the global oil market. 
The Gujarat project, likely to be completed by 2014, is being funded with a debt-equity ratio of 60:40. 
Deal to Boost Business Climate 
It needs a debt of about . 12,000 crore and equity capital of approximately . 8,000 crore, another person familiar with the deal said. 
“However, Saudi Aramco has in principal agreed to pay significant premium to become the partner in the JV that was started in 2006,” he said. The proceeds will be used to fund the completion of the project. “The proposed transaction will be completed through fresh issue of shares by OPaL and resources mobilised through this route will be used to complete the project, which is expected to be commissioned in the second half of 2014,” said another person. 
ONGC and OpaL did not respond to ET’s queries while Aramco said it would not comment on “speculation”. However, executives in the domestic and international oil industry said talks were on but the deal was yet to be concluded. 

Saudi Aramco’s proposed entry into India and joining hands with state-run ONGC in an equity alliance are significant developments for India’s hydrocarbon sector, which has also attracted global majors BP and BG. According to an industry veteran in India, ONGC is currently involved in 
multi-level discussions in various hydrocarbon sectors with Saudi Arabia. “Aramco is also looking at entering Indian markets through co-operation in oil and gas sectors,” he said. 
Aramco has already invested in other major Asian markets such as China, where it has a joint venture for refining and petrochemicals with Sinopec and ExxonMobil. It also has similar business interests in other Asian countries such as Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia. 
ONGC is the lead promoter of OPaL while GAIL and Gujarat State Petroleum Corp (GSPC) are the other partners of the joint venture. Currently, ONGC owns 26% while GAIL has 19% and GSPC 5%. Since Indian promoters are looking for a strategic partner, they have not yet frozen the paid-up capital of the JV, said one of the sources. Prior to the ongoing negotiations with Aramco, ONGC was negotiating with Kuwait Petroleum. However, the discussions were called off due to differences over price, people familiar with the development said. “At a 
country level, ONGC was interested in forming equity alliance with one of these Gulf countries — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar — as they have a long-term association with India,” said the official.
Source: The Economics Times , by: Arun Kumar



Rupee breaches 65 against dollar, nears record low

The Indian rupee breached the psychological 65 mark against the dollar on Tuesday ahead of a key debate on the state of the Indian economy in Parliament. Markets also fell sharply with BSE Sensex slumping over 250 points in early trades.

The partially convertible rupee dropped over 1.6 per cent to hit a low of 65.36 as of 09.20 a.m. against Monday's close of 64.30. It is now trading close to its all-time low of 65.56 hit last week.

Traders attributed month-end dollar demand from importers behind the weakness. Sustained foreign selling in equities also continued to raise concerns about the gaping current account deficit.

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram met foreign investors on Saturday to seek suggestions on attracting dollar inflows, but no big steps have been announced so far.

"The reality on the ground makes it a difficult job for the finance minister to attract FII, FDI flows," currency expert AV Rajwade told NDTV.

Adding to the grim situation is the food security bill passed by the Lok Sabha yesterday. The plan worth nearly $20 billion to provide cheap grain to the poor will hit the fiscal hard, analysts said.

"But for some extremely creative accounting, it's unlikely that fiscal deficit target will be met this year," Mr Rajwade said.

The Sensex traded 228 points lower at 18,330, while the Nifty traded 76 points lower at 5,400. The rupee traded at 65.36 as of 09.20 a.m.

Source:  NDTV Profit (With inputs from Reuters)

Gold up 1.5 per cent, near $1,400, on poor US home sales

Gold rose 1.5 per cent on Friday, hitting its highest price in more than two months near $1,400 an ounce, as a big drop in US new home sales renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve will maintain its bond-buying economic stimulus.

Silver also rallied more than 2 per cent to a three-month high as the dollar fell and US Treasury bond yields dropped.

Sales of new single-family homes in the United States fell more than 13 per cent in July to their lowest level in nine months. The Commerce Department data was much weaker than expected, even during a month when Fed stimulus remained in place.

"The new home sales number is terrible, so the fear is clearly that higher interest rate is going to topple this housing recovery, which means the Fed has to ease and not tighten," said Axel Merk, portfolio manager of Merk Funds which has around $500 million in currency mutual-fund assets.

Bullion also drew support when three Fed officials expressed divergent views on when to reduce the central bank's $85 billion monthly bond buying. Investors have been trying to predict what will happen at a Fed policy meeting next month.

Spot gold rose 1.5 per cent to $1,395.66 an ounce by 1521 GMT, having hit $1,397.30, the highest price since June 7.

US gold futures for December delivery were up $23.60 at $1,394.80 an ounce, with trading volume about two-thirds of its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Among other precious metals, silver jumped 2.5 per cent to $23.68 an ounce, having reached $23.78, which marked the highest price since May 13.

Platinum gained 0.3 per cent to $1,541 an ounce, while palladium eased 0.1 per cent to $750.47 an ounce.

Copyright @ Thomson Reuters 2013